With the Nittany Lion’s scrimmage season finally over (not talking about you Iowa) and the team at 5-1, it is about that time in the season where Joe Paterno’s squad will begin defining itself for the record books. While the national championship was never a realistic goal, a second consecutive conference championship was very much a possibility when the season began. And, despite the lopsided 21-10 loss to the Hawkeyes, if a few things go the Nittany Lion’s way this month and next, that goal could still be realized. However, the team – and its fans – must now take it one game at a time, and not get ahead of themselves. At no time in recent memory has a Penn State team through six contests told us so little about its heart and soul, but that will now change, for the good or bad.
With games against Minnesota, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan State coming, there is no room for error. In each of these contests – sans Indiana, which looks like they are fielding a typical Hoosier disappointment – Penn State could honestly lose each contest and finish the season 6-6. But, let’s be optimistic here…
Minnesota
Prior to 1999, the Gophers had never beaten Penn State. Of course, the 1999 contest whereas Minnesota beat #2 Penn State 24-23 was the start of the long drought that saw Penn State compile four out of five losing seasons that didn’t end until 2005 when the Nittany Lions finally recovered. Since 2005, Minnesota and Penn State have only played each other twice and in both contests, the Lions have won, including a 28-27 overtime victory at Minnesota. Why the PSU administration decided to schedule Minnesota again on homecoming, I will never know, but the game this weekend will likely be close and could produce the same result as was the case in 1999. The ultimate result of this contest will go along way in determining if PSU remains in the top tier of the conference or whether it has slipped back.
Edge goes to PSU, but watch those damn Gophers, which seem to find PSU’s number when it counts.
Michigan
We all know this fact: Penn State has only beaten the Wolverines four times since Big Ten play began in 1993 and only once since 1997 (2008). Luckily for the Nittany Lions, Lloyd Carr is no longer coach and in his place is Rich Rodriquez, who is yet to gel as the Wolverine coach, despite an improved showing versus 2008. If Penn State can get past the Gophers with a convincing victory and minimal injuries, there is no reason that the team can’t travel to Ann Arbor and beat Michigan for the second time in as many seasons. However, to do so, Joe Paterno’s team needs to refrain from playing conservative and not keep the score too close. Besides, one knows that officials at the Big House love the home team and the time keeper does too, so watch out.
Edge goes to Penn State, assuming a comfortable victory against the Gophers comes this week. If that doesn’t happen, all bets are off.
Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald is probably one of those coaches that would do better at a bigger school with better recruits, but who will be stuck at Northwestern forever unless he has a Garry Burnett inspired season the goes against conventional wisdom. In Northwestern’s three victories against the Nittany Lions, two were when Penn State was down (2003, 2004) and once was that terrific Rose Bowl season of old (1995) when the Wildcats defied all logic. Therefore, the only way that the Wildcats win this one is if the Nittany Lions are on a steady decline, which hopefully won’t be the case.
Edge goes to Penn State, unless the rails have completely fallen off in Happy Valley.
Ohio State
When the season began, this game was supposed to decide the 2009 championship. Although that might still be the case, those in Columbus will be more concerned about the Buckeyes contest the following week against Iowa to highlight this one as much. However, no matter the records at the time, this game – especially in Happy Valley – always takes on a life of its own and the Nittany Lions will be ready, whether they are 8-1 at this point or something worst. Right now, I would be hard pressed to predict a Lion’s victory, however, unless Penn State is better than I believe that they are or on the flip-side, the Buckeyes are much worst.
Edge goes to the Buckeyes
Indiana
We say this each year: someday, the Hoosiers will beat the Nittany Lions, which are 0-12, but again, this is not the year.
Edge goes to Penn State, unless this team is worst than 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004 combined!
Michigan State
When Penn State is playing for something (conference championship, solid bowl game), the visiting team has always won. However, when Penn State is off, the home time has won in East Lansing. For now, let’s give the pessimist a few more points.
Edge goes to Michigan State, because Penn State is still too much of an unknown.
Although less of a prediction than a feeling in the gut, this appears to show that Penn State will finish out 4-2 and enter the post-season at 9-3. However, I could easily see the team going 7-5 overall right up to 10-2. If I bet on PSU, which I do not, I could sleep very easily predicting a 5-1 back six record with the only loss coming against Ohio State, but who knows.
Six games will tell us a lot.
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Brump
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