People, PSU can still win title

This post was published 4 months 19 days ago so the points made in the article may be outdated.

I have said this a few times, but I am going to say it again:  Penn State can still with at least a share of the Big Ten conference title.  With bloggers continuing to say that Penn State needs Iowa to lose twice to win the title (see this example), it is worth reviewing the facts:

Fact #1 – The Big Ten shares titles.  If two (or more) teams tie at the top, each team wins a share of the title.  One needs to recall that in both 2005 and in 2008, Penn State defeated Ohio State in the regular season, but thanks to the Nittany Lion’s loss to Michigan (2005) and Iowa (2008), both teams finished at 7-1 and shared the title.  On head-to-heads, the Big Ten does not institute a tie-breaker for the championship trophy. 

Fact #2 – The Rose Bowl is what people are talking about.   Those that continue to mention the “Iowa needs to lose twice” garbage, are talking solely about the automatic BCS bid, a.k.a. the Big Ten bid to the Rose Bowl.  In 2008, thanks to our victory over the Buckeyes, even though both teams shared the title, the Nittany Lions went to Pasadena.    Since the BCS gave the Big Ten a second (i.e. at-large) berth, Ohio State went to the Fiesta Bowl.   By the way, Penn State went to the Orange Bowl in 2005 because an official and separate BCS championship game had not yet existed and in that season, the Rose Bowl hosted the BCS championship game.   Hence, the Orange Bowl bid. 

Now, to the specifics:

Iowa and Ohio State are the only two Big Ten teams that control their own destiny – to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.    If Iowa wins out, it will mean that it beats Ohio State on November 14th (as well as beating Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota) and will end the season at 8-0.  At that mark, Iowa will win the championship trophy outright (i.e. no one will share the title) and will then be rewarded with both the championship trophy and a slot in either the Rose Bowl, or if the Hawkeyes are ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS poll, a spot in the BCS championship game, held one week after the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.   At 7-1, Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl, which assumes that it beats Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan.   Assuming that Iowa’s only conference loss would be to the Buckeyes, Iowa would share the conference title, but lose the tie-breaker for the Rose Bowl to the Buckeyes. 

Penn State needs Iowa to lose…once, to share the title.  While it is correct to say that the only way that the Nittany Lions can return to the Rose Bowl is for the Iowa Hawkeyes to lose two of their final four games, it would only take one Hawkeye loss for Penn State to share the title (assuming it gets by Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan State).   In this case, Iowa goes to Pasadena (remember, we are assuming that the Hawkeyes lose once) and Penn State will (hopefully) be awarded an at-large bid to another BCS bowl.   If Iowa wins out, Penn State would not win a share of the title and no one else will either.

While all of the other Big Ten teams, except Illinois are technically still in the conference title race, the ways in which those team can take at least a share of the title are cumbersome to explain at best and all assume one obvious requirement:  Iowa needs to lose two more games, as Ohio State and Penn State would each have to lose once. 

A final note:

Penn State fans were extremely angry in both 2005 and 2008 that their team had to “share” a conference title with the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team that it had beaten each season.  However, until the Big Ten changes its championship (not BCS bid) requirements, shared titles will continue.  Therefore, while we were angry in the past about sharing a title, we should celebrate if we share the title this year with Iowa, because that would assume that although PSU lost to Iowa, Iowa lost to someone else and we both figured out a way to end the season 7-1 in the Big Ten conference.

Go State!  Beat the Wildcats!

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